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创业板网上开户讲讲IMF副总裁张涛:需采取强有力的政策和合作来应对前所未有的挑战

2020-11-29| 作者:配资资讯|阅读:0

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  琼海博鳌亚洲论坛

  中国北京时间今年就在前几天早上,琼海博鳌亚洲论坛取得成功举行《亚洲经济展望与一体化进程2020报告》线上发布会暨“肺炎疫情下亚洲地区发展前途与挑戰讨论会”。世界银行高级副总裁王晓到会并参加探讨。

  他剖析了肺炎疫情对世界经济、亚洲经济产生的不一样水平的挑戰以及缘故,并对世界各国政府部门必须采用的现行政策作出了确立的提议。他注重了本次肺炎疫情冲击性的严重后果,另外号召“仅有在环境卫生和经济发展两层面相互作出勤奋和开展协作,大家才可以往前迈入”。

  此次先发会和讨论会的語言为英语,在这里共享双语版本的演说纪实,以飨读者。

  图上第二行第一位为王晓

  世界银行王晓高级副总裁

  在琼海博鳌亚洲论坛2020旗舰级汇报网上先发会

  暨肺炎疫情下亚洲地区发展前途与挑戰讨论会上的发言

  女性朋友们、先生们,十分高兴与大伙儿一起报名参加琼海博鳌亚洲论坛2020旗舰级汇报先发会暨肺炎疫情下亚洲地区发展前途与挑戰讨论会。在这里,我想谢谢周小川副会长、黄根成专家及其李保东理事长,另外,我也要谢谢博鳌论坛的策划者们及全部参加此次主题活动的特邀嘉宾。

  我应邀就全世界及亚洲经济市场前景未来展望话题讨论发布一些观点,我十分愿意。但刚开始以前,我想谢谢全部迎战在抵御新冠肺炎一线的医师、护理人员和抢救工作人员,在全球抵御新冠病毒大流行之时,她们依然已经勤奋维护着大家的安全性,大家针对她们所做的放弃愧疚一份真实的谢谢。

  使我们返回全世界发展前途未来展望的主题风格。

  新冠病毒已经全球范畴内席卷,大大的上升了全世界的人工成本。拯救性命必须封禁及大规模的关掉主题活动以缓解病毒。此次身心健康困境和防护封禁也对经济发展造成了比较严重的危害。大家全新的预测分析显示信息,受肺炎疫情危害,今年世界经济将大幅度委缩3%。

  从比较发达经济大国看来,预估今年总体经济发展-6.1%。大部分比较发达经济大国2020年的gdp增速将降低,包含英国、日本国、美国和法国。

  新兴经济体和发展趋势中经济大国也遭遇一系列挑戰,包含环境卫生困境、比较严重的外界要求冲击性、全世界金融业自然环境大幅度缩紧和产品价格狂跌等。总体来说,这种经济大国在今年预估将委缩1.1%。假如将我国清除在预估范畴以外,预估新起市场经济体制体的年增长率可能更差,为-2.2%。

  使我们看一下亚洲地区。

  新冠病毒针对东亚地区的危害将是比较严重、全方位和史无前例的。实际上,大家预测分析今年亚洲经济提高将止步不前。这将比全世界金融风暴时经济发展变缓至4.7%要槽糕,乃至要比亚洲地区金融风暴时提高低至1.3%还槽糕。实际上,以往六十年里,亚洲地区从没经历过零增长。

  为何亚洲地区遭遇着史无前例的变缓?

  最先,与全世界金融风暴不一样的是,亚洲地区的实体线产业链——尤其是服务行业会遭受重挫。第二,与亚洲地区金融风暴不一样的是,亚洲地区之外地区的外界要求变缓更为严重。第三,如同如今迅猛发展的供应链管理所证实的,貿易一体化水平日渐提升,代表着一切一个国家的生产制造变缓都是会快速而普遍地传送到全球别的地域,尤其是在亚洲地区。因而,尽管一些东南亚国家在上一次困境中遭受了非常大冲击性,但今日经济低迷的蔓延到范畴要普遍得多。

  更关键的是,这类从来没有的市场前景将遭受从来没有的可变性要素危害。这代表着,经济发展危害的水平在于各种各样难以预料要素的相互影响,包含病毒感染时兴的过程和有关抵制工作中。可是,出現更坏結果的风险性占了主导性。

  比如,假如出現了一波又一波的感柒,就会有很有可能必须不断的抵制对策。这种感柒潮很有可能造成比现阶段所预测分析更久和更大幅的经济下行。又比如,对病毒传染扩散的可变性不断存有、自信心无法改进、工厂倒闭等,都将造成更为悠长的供应链管理终断和要求皮软。

  当今的现行政策怎样解决?

  简单点来说,因为经济发展冲击性的严重后果,必须制订全方位的各项政策。在这里,我觉得注重与亚洲地区经济大国有重特大关联的以下几个方面:

  最先,现行政策实施者务必要保证向诊疗卫生行政部门出示充足的适用和维护——及其采用缓解病毒的对策。

  第二,现行政策实施者应以适用受影响最比较严重的家中和公司为总体目标。这种现行政策要可以立即维护工作人员、学生就业和产业链,而不是只根据金融企业。务必用心慎重调节现行政策,以降低不公平状况。

  第三,现行政策理应维持反应迅速、灵便。很多东南亚国家早已采用了积极的应对措施,缓解不好的经济发展危害,并为经济发展的再次对外开放和再生做出了发展战略。应对肺炎疫情及亚洲经济的异方差性所产生的极大可变性,现行政策也必须灵便和具备适应能力,最有效地达到目标。

  除此之外,世界各国还应寻找并运用多边和多边合作交换信用额度,及其多边合作组织 出示的资产适用来应对外界工作压力。资产流动性对策还可以充分发挥,保证对外开放单位的平稳。

  最终但一样关键的是,必须根据强大的全世界和经贸合作来适用世界各国的勤奋。病毒感染分不清国界线,这次困境不同于其他困境。一切我国都不太可能只靠自身的能量获得成功。仅有在环境卫生和经济发展两层面相互作出勤奋和开展协作,大家才可以往前迈入,协助全世界和亚洲经济重返正规。

  我十分希望今日大会上的精彩纷呈探讨,恭祝琼海博鳌亚洲论坛第一场网上旗舰级汇报新品发布会和讨论会圆满收官。

  谢谢你们!

  Keynote SPEech by IMF Deputy Managing Director

  Dr. Zhang Tao at the Launch of the BFA 2020

  Flagship Report & Symposium on Asian Development Prospects

  and Challenges under the Pandemic

  Ladies and gentlemen, it is a real pleasure for me to join you today for the online launch of the Boao Forum’s inaugural flagship report and the symposium on “Asian Development Prospects and Challenges Under the Pandemic.” I would like to thank Vice Chairman Mr. Zhou Xiaochuan, Director and Former Deputy Prime Minister Mr. Wong Kan Seng and Secretary General Mr. Li Baodong, and all the organizers at the Boao Forum, as well as all of you who are participating virtually in this important event.

  I was asked to make some remarks on the global and Asian economic outlook, and I am glad to do so. But before I begin, I would like first to acknowledge and thank all the frontline workers—doctors, nurses, and first responders—who are working so hard to keep us safe as the world continues to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. We owe them a true deBT of gratitude for the sacrifices they are making.

  Let me move to the global outlook.

  The pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide. Protecting lives has required lockdowns an d widespread closures of activities to slow the spread of the virus. The health crisis and the associated lockdowns are also having a severe impact on economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, our latest projections show the global economy contracting sharply by 3 percent in 2020.

  Looking at advanced economies, economic growth as a whole is projected to be -6.1 percent in 2020. Most advanced economies are forecast to contract this year, including the United States , Japan , the United Kingdom , and Germany .

  Emerging market and developing economies also face a range of challenges, including the health crisis, a severe external demand shock, a dramatic tightening in global financial conditions, and plunging commodity prices. Overall, these economies are projected to contract by 1.1 percent in 2020. If China is excluded from the calculation, the growth rate for the group of EMDEs is expected to be even worse, at -2.2 percent.

  Let me turn to Asia.

  The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe, across the board, and unprecedented. Indeed, we are forecasting that Asia’s economic growth will come to a standstill in 2020. This is worse than the Global Financial Crisis, when growth slowed to 4.7 percent. It is even worse than the Asian Financial Crisis, when growth slowed to 1.3 percent. In fact, Asia has not experienced zero growth in the last 60 years.

  Why is the region facing such an unprecedented slowdown?

  Well, first of all, unlike the global financial crisis, Asia’s real sector—and especially the service sector—is being hit hard. Second, unlike the Asian financial crisis, the slowdown of external demand outside Asia is much more severe. Third, increasing trade integration, as evidenced by today’s highly developed suPPly chains, means that production slowdowns in any one country transmit rapidly and widely to other parts of the world, and particularly within Asia. And as a result, while some Asian countries were hit very hard during the previous crisis, the downturn today is much more widespread.

  And more importantly, this unprecedented outlook is subject to an unprecedented amount of uncertainty. This means that the extent of the economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict, including the course of the pandemic and the containment efforts. But risks of a worse outcome predominate.

  For example, there is a risk that continued containment efforts may be needed if there are waves of infections. These waves could lead to a longer and sharper downturn than the current forecast.

  Other examples include lingering uncertainty about contagion, confidence failing to improve, and business closures, leading to longer-lasting supply-chain disruptions and weakness in demand.

  Now, what about the policy response?

  In short, a full arsenal of policies is needed, given the severity of the economic shock. Here, I would like to highlight the following points that are relevant for Asia’s economies.

  First, policymakers must ensure adequate support and protection in the healthcare sector— as well as for measures that slow contagion.

  Second, policymakers should aim to target support for the hardest-hit households and firms. These policies need to protect people, jobs, and industries directly, not just through financial institutions. Policies must be carefully calibrated to reduce inequality.

  Third, policies should remain responsive and nimble. Many countries in Asia have already responded proactively by mitigating the adverse economic impact and by positioning themselves strategically for economic reopening and recovering. Faced with tremendous uncertainties related to the pandemic and the heterogeneity of Asian economies, policies also need to be nimble and adaptive to achieve their objectives most effectively.

  In addition, countries should also seek and utilize bilateral and multilateral swap lines and financial support from multilateral institutions in response to external pressures,. There can also be a role for capital flow measures to secure external sector stability.

  Last but not least, strong global and regional cooperation is needed to complement national efforts. The virus does not respect borders, and this crisis is like no other. No country can succeed by itself. only by working together and cooperating on BOTh the health and economic fronts, will we be able to move forward and help the global and Asian economies get back on track.

  With these remarks, I greatly look forward to our discussion today, and wish great success to the Boao Forum in its launch of the inaugural flagship report and the symposium.

  Thank you!

本文地址:http://www.hrbtcbgjj.cn/shangganshuoshuo/202011297823.html

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